ICAEW chart of the week: World population

My chart for ICAEW this week looks at how a declining fertility rate means the global population is now anticipated to reach a peak of ‘just’ 10.3bn in 2084, according to the UN.

World population.
ICAEW chart of the week. 

Column chart showing the world’s population in 2000, 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100. 

Europe and Middle East – 0.8bn, 0.9bn, 1.0bn, 1.0bn and 1.0bn. 
Americas – 0.8bn, 1.1bn, 1.2bn, 1.2bn and 1.1bn. 
Asia-Pacific – 2.1bn, 2.4bn, 2.3bn, 1.9bn and 1.5bn. 
South and Central Asia – 1.7bn, 2.3bn, 2.7bn, 2.9bn and 2.8bn. 
Africa – 0.8bn, 1.5bn, 2.5bn, 3.3bn and 3.8bn. 

Total – 6.2bn, 8.2bn, 9.7bn, 10.3bn (10,250m) and 10.2bn (10,180m), with a peak of 10.3bn (10,289m) in 2084. 

For the purposes of this chart, Europe and Middle East comprises Europe and Western Asia as defined by the UN but excludes Russia and Northern Africa, Asia-Pacific comprises Eastern Asia, Southeastern Asia and Oceania, and South and Central Asia comprises Southern Asia, Central Asia and Russia. 


18 Jul 2024.   Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA. Design by Sunday. 

Source: UN Department of Economic Affairs, ‘World Population Prospects’. 


© ICAEW 2024

The Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) recently published its latest population projections for the 21st century. Its central projection is for the world’s population to increase from 8.2bn next year to a peak of 10.3bn in 2084 in 2084 before falling slightly to 10.2bn at the end of the century.

This means that the population will have increased by 2.0bn between 2000 and 2025 and is projected to increase by 1.5bn over the next 25 years to 9.7bn in 2050 and by 0.6bn to 10.3bn in 2075, before gradually starting to fall from 2084 onwards.

My chart illustrates how this change differs by region, with the population of Africa expected to grow throughout the century from 1.5bn in 2025 to 3.8bn in 2100. South and Central Asia, which has seen its population grow from 1.7bn in 2000 to an anticipated 2.3bn next year, is expected to see further growth to 2.9bn in 2075 before then falling to 2.8bn in 2100, while the population of the Asia-Pacific region is expected to increase from 2.1bn in 2000 to 2.4bn in 2025, is expected to fall gradually from 2030 onwards to 1.5bn in 2100.

The population of the Americas is expected to grow slightly from 1.1bn in 2025 (up from 0.8bn in 2000) to 1.2bn before falling back to 1.1bn by 2100, while Europe and Middle East’s population is expected to increase from 0.9bn in 2025 (up from 0.8bn in 2000) to close to 1.0bn in 2050 and for the rest of the century.

UN DESA says the main driver of global population increase over the next 60 years until it peaks is the momentum created by growth in the past, with increases in the number of women of reproductive age until the late 2050s offsetting a declining fertility rate – currently one child fewer on average than in the 1990s (2.25 live births per woman currently compared with 3.31 in 1990). They also project that the number of people aged 65 will reach 2.2bn in 2080, surpassing the number of children under 18 in that year.

The declining fertility rate is one reason that the UN are projecting that the world’s population in 2100 will be 700m or 6% smaller than they were anticipating a decade ago, despite life expectancy starting to increase again after falling during the COVID-19 pandemic.

For some countries and areas, the declines in population are expected to be quite significant over the remainder of the century, such as the populations of China and Japan, which are expected to reduce from 1,416m to 633m and from 123m to 77m between 2025 and 2100 respectively. Meanwhile India is expected to grow from a population of 1,464m in 2025 to a peak of 1,701m in 2061 before falling to 1,505m in 2100.

Many other countries and areas have already or will shortly see their populations start to decline, except for about 52 countries and areas up until 2054, and 62 up until 2100, where immigration will be the main driver of population growth. The latter includes the UK, where the population is expected to rise from 70m in 2025 to a peak of 76m in 2073 before falling to 74m in 2100, and the US, expected to grow from 347m in 2025 to 421m in 2100.

According to the analysis by the UN, there are around 100 countries and areas (out of the 237 included in their analysis) with relatively youthful populations over the next half century that have a window of opportunity to accelerate their economic development. This ‘demographic dividend’ occurs when the share of the population of working ages is increasing faster than the overall population and a substantial and sustained decline in fertility increases the numbers available to work, assuming the countries concerned can put in the investment needed to take advantage of this opportunity.

This chart was originally published by ICAEW.

ICAEW chart of the week: Overseas travel

My chart this week is about visits abroad by UK residents, illustrating how people have started to travel again following restrictions during the pandemic.

Column chart showing number of foreign trips by UK residents by calendar quarter.

2017: 15.9m, 23.7m, 28.7m. 18.9m
2018: 16.6m, 24.6m, 29.9m, 19.4m
2019: 18.2m, 25/8m, 30.0m, 19.2m
2020: 13.9m, 0.9m, 6/2m, 2.8m
2021: 0.9, 1.2m, 8.1m, 9.0m
2022: 9.4m, 20.4m

Visits abroad by UK residents have picked up following the depths of the pandemic but have yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels.

According to the Office for National Statistics, the number of visits abroad by UK residents by quarter amounted to 15.9m, 23.7m, 28.7 and 18.9m in 2017; 16.6m, 24.6m, 29.9m and 19.4m in 2018; 18.2m, 25.8m, 30.0m and 19.2m in 2019; 13.9m, 0.9m, 6.2m and 2.8m in 2020; 0.9m, 1.2m, 8.1m and 9.0m in 2021; and 9.4m and 20.4m in the first two quarters of 2022.

Although substantially higher than at the height of COVID-19 travel restrictions, trips abroad during the first half of 2022 were still substantially lower than before the pandemic. 

The 20.4m visits during the second quarter of 2022 comprised 15.1m to countries in the European Union, 1.3m to other European countries, 1.0m to North America and 3.0m to other countries around the world. Of these trips, 13.4m were for holidays, 5.1m were to visit friends or relatives, 1.4m for business and 0.5m were for other reasons. 

These numbers compare with 25.8m visits in the second quarter of 2019, comprising 18.9m to the EU, 1.4m to other European countries, 1.6m to North America and 3.9m to the rest of the world. This comprised an estimated 16.8m holidays, 6.0m visits to friends or relatives, 2.5m business trips and 0.5m other.

The amount spent by travellers in the second quarter of 2022 was estimated to be £15.8bn, an average of approximately £775 per visit. This compares with an average of around £630 in the second quarter of 2019, reflecting a weaker pound, inflation and the mix of travellers and countries visited.

Trips abroad during the key summer quarter of July to September 2022 has yet to be released by the ONS, so we wait to see whether there will be anywhere near the peak of 30.0m visits recorded in Q3 of 2019.

This chart was originally published by ICAEW.

ICAEW chart of the week: Europe’s gas supply

Our chart this week looks at Europe’s natural gas supply and its current reliance on Russian gas to keep homes warm, businesses operating and gas-fired power plants generating.

Two-column chart on Europe's supply of natural gas in billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2020.

Gas supply of 494bn, comprising Europe production of 213bcm, imports from Russia 158bcm and other imports of 123bcm.

Gas demand: Germany 94bcm, UK 80bcm, Italy 71bcm, Netherlands 44bcm, France 40bcm, other Western Europe 93bcm, Eastern Europe 72bcm.

Europe’s gas supply in 2020 amounted to 494 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas, comprising 213bcm (43%) of domestic production (principally from the North Sea), 158bcm (32%) imported from Russia, and 123bcm (25%) imported from other sources.

For this purpose, Europe excludes Russia, Belarus and Ukraine and these numbers also don’t take account of movements into and out of gas storage. For reference, 1bc) = 38.2 petajoules (PJ) = 10.6 terawatt hours (TWh) = 36.2trn British Thermal Units (BTU).

The biggest users of gas are Germany, the UK, Italy, Netherlands and France, which consumed approximately 94bcm, 80bcm, 71bcm, 44bcm and 40bcm respectively, together adding up to 329bcm or 67% of the total. Other western European countries consumed 93bcm of gas in 2020, including Spain (32bcm), Belgium (18bcm), Austria (9bcm), Portugal (6bcm), Greece (6bcm), Ireland (5bcm), Norway (5bcm), Switzerland (4bcm) and Denmark (3bcm).

Eastern European countries consumed 72bcm, including Poland (22bcm), Romania (12bcm), Hungary (11bcm), Czechia (9bcm), Slovakia (5bcm) and Bulgaria (3bcm). The Baltic states together consumed 4bcm.

Domestic production of 213bcm includes 116bcm from Norway, 41bcm from the UK and 24bcm from the Netherlands, almost all of which was supplied through a network of pipelines starting under the North Sea. The next largest producer was Romania with 9bcm.

The majority of Russia’s supply (around 140bcm) was sent through pipelines into eastern Europe, Germany and Italy, and from there onto western European countries. The balance of around 18bcm was supplied by tankers filled with liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Some of the remaining imports were also supplied by pipelines, in particular from Algeria, Libya and Turkey, but the majority was purchased as LNG on the world market from suppliers including the USA, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Nigeria and Trinidad & Tobago among others.

Removing Russia from the gas supply chain will not be easy, especially as the largest consumer of gas – Germany – has no LNG terminals and currently relies on pipelines for almost all of its gas supply.

Despite that, European leaders are working on plans to do so, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) recently publishing a 10-point plan to reduce Europe’s reliance on Russian gas.

This chart was originally published by ICAEW.

EU fiscal consultation

Input into ICAEW’s response to the future of the EU Economic Governance Framework.

I recently contributed to ICAEW’s response to a consultation on the future of the EU Economic Governance Framework by Dr Susanna Di Feliciantonio, ICAEW’s Head of European Affairs.

To read more see Susanna’s article about the consultation response.

ICAEW chart of the week: The global vaccination challenge

This week’s chart looks at how much progress there has been in vaccinating an estimated global population of 7.8bn people, and how much is left to be done.

Chart showing vaccination status across Europe, North America, China, India, Rest of Asia, Africa and South America. (See text below for details).

According to Our World in Data as of 15 June 2021, 727m people are fully vaccinated, 884m are partly vaccinated and 3,847 are not yet vaccinated, based on a target of 70% of a world population of 7,795m.

With a vaccination target of 70% needed to prevent the further spread of the virus, we need to vaccinate just under 5.5bn people. So far, only 727m (9% of the global population) have been fully vaccinated, mostly in China (223m), North America (169m) and Europe (158m).

Only relatively small numbers have been fully vaccinated in India (47m), the rest of Asia (73m), South America & Oceania (46m) and Africa (11m). A further 884m (11%) have been partly vaccinated, comprising China (399m), India (156m), Europe (111m), rest of Asia (73m), North America (67m), South America & Oceania (59m) and Africa (19m).

This leaves 3,847m people (49%) yet to be vaccinated, with 1,128m in Asia excluding China and India, 909m in Africa, 763m in India, 386m in China, 255m in Europe, 227m in South America and 179m in North America.

At the current run rate of around 33m vaccinations a day and assuming two doses are needed for each person, it should in theory take around 260 days or just under nine months to deliver the 8.5bn remaining doses needed. With some vaccinations requiring only one dose and expanded manufacturing capacity, the potential is that the world could be vaccinated even sooner than that.

In practice, it will not be so easy. The current level of vaccinations is being driven by China, which is vaccinating around 16m of its population a day at the moment, and whether many countries in the rest of Asia and Africa can get up to proportionately similar levels is not certain. Many countries will struggle to afford the vaccines they need and the 1bn doses just announced by the G7 will only go so far. Logistically, there are some big challenges in getting vaccines into arms in many parts of the world.

That is why some are saying that it will take until the end of 2022 to fully vaccinate the 70% of people needed to protect against the virus. Let’s hope that they are just being cautious, and the momentum can be maintained to get the world vaccinated even sooner than that.

Source: Our World in Data COVID-19 dataset extracted on 15 June 2021 – Mathieu, E., Ritchie, H., Ortiz-Ospina, E. et al. A global database of COVID-19 vaccinations. Nat Hum Behav (2021).

This chart was originally published by ICAEW.