Tag: #africa

ICAEW chart of the week: World population

My chart for ICAEW this week looks at how a declining fertility rate means the global population is now anticipated to reach a peak of ‘just’ 10.3bn in 2084, according to the UN.

World population. ICAEW chart of the week. Column chart showing the world’s population in 2000, 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100. Europe and Middle East – 0.8bn, 0.9bn, 1.0bn, 1.0bn and 1.0bn. Americas – 0.8bn, 1.1bn, 1.2bn, 1.2bn and 1.1bn. Asia-Pacific – 2.1bn, 2.4bn, 2.3bn, 1.9bn and 1.5bn. South and Central Asia – 1.7bn, 2.3bn, 2.7bn, 2.9bn and 2.8bn. Africa – 0.8bn, 1.5bn, 2.5bn, 3.3bn and 3.8bn. Total – 6.2bn, 8.2bn, 9.7bn, 10.3bn (10,250m) and 10.2bn (10,180m), with a peak of 10.3bn (10,289m) in 2084. For the purposes of this chart, Europe and Middle East comprises Europe and Western Asia as defined by the UN but excludes Russia and Northern Africa, Asia-Pacific comprises Eastern Asia, Southeastern Asia and Oceania, and South and Central Asia comprises Southern Asia, Central Asia and Russia. 18 Jul 2024. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA. Design by Sunday. Source: UN Department of Economic Affairs, ‘World Population Prospects’. © ICAEW 2024

The Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) recently published its latest population projections for the 21st century. Its central projection is for the world’s population to increase from 8.2bn next year to a peak of 10.3bn in 2084 in 2084 before falling slightly to 10.2bn at the end of the century.

This means that the population will have increased by 2.0bn between 2000 and 2025 and is projected to increase by 1.5bn over the next 25 years to 9.7bn in 2050 and by 0.6bn to 10.3bn in 2075, before gradually starting to fall from 2084 onwards.

My chart illustrates how this change differs by region, with the population of Africa expected to grow throughout the century from 1.5bn in 2025 to 3.8bn in 2100. South and Central Asia, which has seen its population grow from 1.7bn in 2000 to an anticipated 2.3bn next year, is expected to see further growth to 2.9bn in 2075 before then falling to 2.8bn in 2100, while the population of the Asia-Pacific region is expected to increase from 2.1bn in 2000 to 2.4bn in 2025, is expected to fall gradually from 2030 onwards to 1.5bn in 2100.

The population of the Americas is expected to grow slightly from 1.1bn in 2025 (up from 0.8bn in 2000) to 1.2bn before falling back to 1.1bn by 2100, while Europe and Middle East’s population is expected to increase from 0.9bn in 2025 (up from 0.8bn in 2000) to close to 1.0bn in 2050 and for the rest of the century.

UN DESA says the main driver of global population increase over the next 60 years until it peaks is the momentum created by growth in the past, with increases in the number of women of reproductive age until the late 2050s offsetting a declining fertility rate – currently one child fewer on average than in the 1990s (2.25 live births per woman currently compared with 3.31 in 1990). They also project that the number of people aged 65 will reach 2.2bn in 2080, surpassing the number of children under 18 in that year.

The declining fertility rate is one reason that the UN are projecting that the world’s population in 2100 will be 700m or 6% smaller than they were anticipating a decade ago, despite life expectancy starting to increase again after falling during the COVID-19 pandemic.

For some countries and areas, the declines in population are expected to be quite significant over the remainder of the century, such as the populations of China and Japan, which are expected to reduce from 1,416m to 633m and from 123m to 77m between 2025 and 2100 respectively. Meanwhile India is expected to grow from a population of 1,464m in 2025 to a peak of 1,701m in 2061 before falling to 1,505m in 2100.

Many other countries and areas have already or will shortly see their populations start to decline, except for about 52 countries and areas up until 2054, and 62 up until 2100, where immigration will be the main driver of population growth. The latter includes the UK, where the population is expected to rise from 70m in 2025 to a peak of 76m in 2073 before falling to 74m in 2100, and the US, expected to grow from 347m in 2025 to 421m in 2100.

According to the analysis by the UN, there are around 100 countries and areas (out of the 237 included in their analysis) with relatively youthful populations over the next half century that have a window of opportunity to accelerate their economic development. This ‘demographic dividend’ occurs when the share of the population of working ages is increasing faster than the overall population and a substantial and sustained decline in fertility increases the numbers available to work, assuming the countries concerned can put in the investment needed to take advantage of this opportunity.

This chart was originally published by ICAEW.

ICAEW chart of the week: Africa

I take a look at Africa this week and how its current population of 1.5bn, 18% of the world’s total, is distributed across the continent.

Map of Africa's 1.5bn people with countries coloured into five regions, overlayed by semi-transparent scaled bubbles with the population of each region. Teal: Western Africa 435m. Orange: Northern Africa 221m. Green: Central Africa 178m. Purple: Southern Africa 198m. Blue: Eastern Africa 428m.

My chart this week illustrates how Africa’s population of 1,460m can be divided into five regions. These comprise Western Africa with 435m people, Northern Africa with 221m, Central Africa with 178m, Southern Africa with 198m, and Eastern Africa with 428m. 

These regions are based on the African Union’s official regions for its 55 member states, which differ from the regions used by the United Nations. They include Réunion (1.0m) and Mayotte (0.3m), two French overseas territories in the Indian Ocean that are not members of the African Union, as well as St Helena (5,000), an overseas territory of the UK in the Atlantic. It also includes an estimated 5.8m people living in African Union applicant Somaliland that are included within the number for Somalia.

Excluded are 175,000 or so people living on the African continent in Ceuta and Melilla (Spain), around 2.2m and 250,000 respectively in the Atlantic Ocean on the Canary Islands (Spain) and Madeira (Portugal), and several hundred people in the Indian Ocean within France’s Southern Territories.

The table below breaks down the total by country within each region, highlighting how the four largest countries by population each have more than 100m people, led by Nigeria with 223.8m (15.3% of Africa’s total), Ethiopia with 126.5m (8.7%), Egypt with 112.7m (7.7%) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo with 102.3m (7.0%). 

The next largest are Tanzania with 67.4m (4.6%), South Africa with 60.4m (4.1%), Kenya with 55.1m (3.8%), Uganda with 48.6m (3.3%), Sudan with 48.1m (3.3%), Algeria with 45.6m (3.1%), Morocco with 37.8m (2.6%), Angola with 36.7m (2.5%), Ghana with 34.1m (2.3%), Mozambique with 33.9m (2.3%), Madagascar with 30.3m (2.1%) and Côte d’Ivoire with 28.9m (2.0%).

Table showing populations by each region: Western Africa 435m: Nigeria 223.8m, Ghana 34.1m, Côte d'Ivoire 28.9m, Niger 27.2m, Mali 23.3m, Burkina Faso 23.3m, Senegal 17.7m, Guinea 14.2m, Benin 13.7m, Togo 9.1m, Sierra Leone 8.9m, Liberia 5.4m, Gambia 2.8m, Guinea-Bissau 2.2m, Cabo Verde 0.6m, St Helena (UK) 0.0m. Northern Africa 221m: Egypt 112.7m, Algeria 45.6m, Morocco 37.8m, Tunisia 12.5m, Libya 6.9m, Mauritania 4.9m, Western Sahara 0.6m. Central Africa 178m: DR Congo 102.3m, Cameroon 28.6m, Chad 13.2m, Congo 6.1m, Central African Republic 5.7m, Gabon 2.4m, Equatorial Guinea 1.7m, São Tomé and Principe 0.2m. Southern Africa 198m: South Africa 60.4m, Angola 36.7m, Mozambique 33.9m, Malawi 20.9m, Zambia 20.6m, Zimbabwe 16.7m, Botswana 2.7m, Namibia 2.6m, Lesotho 2.3m, Eswatini 1.2m. Eastern Africa 428m: Ethiopia 126.5m, Tanzania 67.4m, Kenya 55.1m, Uganda 48.6m, Sudan 48.1m, Madagascar 30.3m, Somalia 18.1m, Rwanda 14.1m, South Sudan 11.1m, Eritrea 3.7m, Mauritius 1.3m, Djibouti 1.1m, Réunion (FR) 1.0m, Comoros 0.9m, Mayotte (FR) 0.3m, Seychelles 0.1m.

The population of Africa is expected to grow significantly over the rest of the century, with the UN’s medium variant projecting a population of 1.7bn (20% of the projected global total) in 2030, 2.1bn in 2040 (23%), 2.5bn (26%) in 2050, 2.9bn (28%) in 2060, 3.2bn (31%) in 2070, 3.5bn (34%) in 2080, 3.7bn (36%) in 2090 and 3.9bn (38%) in 2100. This is despite a rapidly declining birth rate, with many more Africans living much longer lives than preceding generations.

Africa is currently relatively poor compared with advanced economies, with the total GDP for its 55 countries and 1.5bn people close in size to the UK’s single country GDP for 67.5m people of around £2.5trn a year at current exchange rates. This is around 3% of the global economy in each case. 

The UK’s share of the global economy is likely to decline over the rest of the century as Africa and other developing economies grow at a much faster pace. For Africa the combination of a rapidly growing population and economic development should see it become substantially more significant to the global economy than it is today.

This chart was originally published by ICAEW.

ICAEW chart of the week: The global vaccination challenge

This week’s chart looks at how much progress there has been in vaccinating an estimated global population of 7.8bn people, and how much is left to be done.

Chart showing vaccination status across Europe, North America, China, India, Rest of Asia, Africa and South America. (See text below for details). According to Our World in Data as of 15 June 2021, 727m people are fully vaccinated, 884m are partly vaccinated and 3,847 are not yet vaccinated, based on a target of 70% of a world population of 7,795m.

With a vaccination target of 70% needed to prevent the further spread of the virus, we need to vaccinate just under 5.5bn people. So far, only 727m (9% of the global population) have been fully vaccinated, mostly in China (223m), North America (169m) and Europe (158m).

Only relatively small numbers have been fully vaccinated in India (47m), the rest of Asia (73m), South America & Oceania (46m) and Africa (11m). A further 884m (11%) have been partly vaccinated, comprising China (399m), India (156m), Europe (111m), rest of Asia (73m), North America (67m), South America & Oceania (59m) and Africa (19m).

This leaves 3,847m people (49%) yet to be vaccinated, with 1,128m in Asia excluding China and India, 909m in Africa, 763m in India, 386m in China, 255m in Europe, 227m in South America and 179m in North America.

At the current run rate of around 33m vaccinations a day and assuming two doses are needed for each person, it should in theory take around 260 days or just under nine months to deliver the 8.5bn remaining doses needed. With some vaccinations requiring only one dose and expanded manufacturing capacity, the potential is that the world could be vaccinated even sooner than that.

In practice, it will not be so easy. The current level of vaccinations is being driven by China, which is vaccinating around 16m of its population a day at the moment, and whether many countries in the rest of Asia and Africa can get up to proportionately similar levels is not certain. Many countries will struggle to afford the vaccines they need and the 1bn doses just announced by the G7 will only go so far. Logistically, there are some big challenges in getting vaccines into arms in many parts of the world.

That is why some are saying that it will take until the end of 2022 to fully vaccinate the 70% of people needed to protect against the virus. Let’s hope that they are just being cautious, and the momentum can be maintained to get the world vaccinated even sooner than that.

Source: Our World in Data COVID-19 dataset extracted on 15 June 2021 – Mathieu, E., Ritchie, H., Ortiz-Ospina, E. et al. A global database of COVID-19 vaccinations. Nat Hum Behav (2021).

This chart was originally published by ICAEW.