Tag: #cpi

ICAEW chart of the week: Inflation (again)

My chart for ICAEW this week shows that while headline inflation slowed to 2.3% in April, a core inflation figure of 3.9% means the fight against inflation is far from over.

Inflation (again) ICAEW chart of the week Step chart combined with five individual line graphs under each step. Annual CPI: Apr 2023 to Apr 2024 Core inflation +3.9% (height = 3.0%) Food prices +2.8% (height = 0.3%) Alcohol & tobacco +8.1% (height = 0.3%) Energy -16.7% (height = -1.3%) =CPI all items +2.3% (height 2.3%) Core inflation line graph: gradual slope downwards from +6.8% to +3.9%. Food prices line graph: steep slope downwards from +19.3% to +2.8%. Alcohol & tobacco line graph: flattish line from +9.1% which then rises, falls and rises before falling to +8.1%. Energy prices line graph: sharply falling line with a couple of zig zags upwards and then a final fall - from +10.8% to -16.7%. CPI all times - a gradual fall (with bumps) from +8.7% tp +2.3%.23 May 2024. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA. Design by Sunday. Source: ONS, 'Consumer price inflation, UK: Apr 2024'. © 2024.

We return to the topic of consumer price inflation (CPI) this week following the news that it has returned to within its target range of 2% plus or minus 1% for the first time since July 2021. 

Our chart illustrates how a 16.7% fall in energy prices between April 2023 and April 2024, have partially offset core inflation of 3.9%, food price rises of 2.8% and alcohol and tobacco prices rises of 8.1%, to result in annual CPI of 2.3%.

It also shows how each of these components of inflation have changed over the last 12 months. Core inflation has slowed from an annual rate of 6.8% in April 2023 to 3.9% in April 2024, food price inflation from 19.3% to 2.8%, and alcohol and tobacco price inflation from 9.1% to 8.1%. Meanwhile, energy prices have fallen over the last year with the annual rate of change going from +10.8% in April 2023 to -16.7% in April 2024.

These components of the inflation index combine to see CPI slow from an annual rate of 8.7% in April 2023 to 2.3% for the 12 months to April 2024, positive news for the Bank of England. It has spent the last few years writing letters to the Chancellor, explaining why inflation is off target and the actions the Bank is taking to bring inflation back on target.

The challenge for the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is when to take the foot off the brake and start cutting interest rates. The indications are that this won’t be in June as some had hoped, with policymakers concerned about the persistence of services inflation (5.9% in the year to April 2024, a component of core inflation not shown in the chart) and the level of wage rises (5.7% in the year to March 2024), neither of which are consistent with inflation staying within its target range. 

This chart was originally published by ICAEW.

ICAEW chart of the week: Retail sales

My chart for ICAEW this week looks at how retail sales have increased by 19.5% over the past five years, comprising a 1.4% fall in volumes and a 21.2% increase in prices.

Double step chart: Years to Feb 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024 = Five years to Feb 2024. Retail sales ICAEW chart of the week Prices up (orange) Prices down (purple) Volumes up (teal) Volumes down (green) Top step chart: prices +1.0%, -1.1%, +7.8%, +9.6%, +2.6% = +21.2% Bottom step chart: volumes -0.2%, -3.3%, +7.0%, -4.2%, -0.3% = -1.4% Total retail sales in the horizontal axes descriptions: Year to Feb 2020 +0.8%, Year to Feb 2021 -4.4%, Year to Feb 2022 +15.4%, Year to Feb 2023 +5.0%, Year to Feb 2024 +2.3% = Five years to Feb 2024 +19.5% 27 Mar 2024. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA. Design by Sunday. Sources: ONS, 'Retail sales, Great Britain: Feb 2024 (seasonally adjusted)'; ICAEW calculations. (c) ICAEW 2024

The latest statistics from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) up to February 2024 highlight how retail sales in Great Britain (England, Wales and Scotland) have been on a rollercoaster ride over the past five years as the pandemic, then the cost-of-living crisis, battered the economy.

As our chart of the week illustrates, changes in retail sales can be split between volumes and prices, with growth in retail sales of 19.5% over the five years to February 2024 consisting of a 1.4% fall in volumes and a 21.2% increase in prices.

Our chart also shows how retail sales have increased by year, starting with a 0.8% increase in retail sales in the year to February 2020 (from a 0.2% fall in volumes and a 1% increase in prices) before the first pandemic lockdown the following month. That first year of the pandemic to February 2021 resulted in a 4.4% decline in sales (a 3.3% fall in volumes and a 1.1% reduction in prices) as we cut back on spending, followed by a massive 15.4% jump in retail sales in the year to February 2022 (7% from higher volumes and 7.8% from higher prices) as the nation emerged and started to spend heavily.

The cost-of-living crisis was behind a 5% increase in retail sales in the year to February 2023, as although prices rose 9.6% as inflation accelerated, households cut back on what they bought in response to drive a 4.2% fall in retail volumes.

Retail sales were up by a more modest 2.3% in the year to February 2024, comprising a 0.3% fall in volumes and a 2.6% increase in prices as inflation moderated.

Evening out the ups and downs gives an average increase in retail sales of 3.6% a year over the last five years, comprising an average fall of 0.3% a year in volumes and an average increase of 3.9% in prices.

This is not as positive a picture for retail business as the numbers might imply. Although it appears that retailers are selling slightly less overall at much higher prices, our chart doesn’t reflect the substantial increases many have seen in their input costs over the same period.

For more ICAEW analysis on the economy, click here.

This chart was originally published by ICAEW.

ICAEW chart of the week: Core inflation

The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee held interest rates constant at its latest meeting, despite CPI falling to 3.4% in February and core inflation dropping to 4.5%.

Line chart: Core inflation ICAEW chart of the week CPI (purple) - line Core inflation (orange) - line Bank of England target range - shaded area Annual inflation rates for the years to Dec 2022 to Feb 2024: CPI: 10.5%, 10.1%, 10.4%, 8.7%, 8.7%, 7.9%, 6.8%, 6.7%, 6.7%, 4.6%, 3.9%, 4.0%, 4.0%, 3.4% (just above the Bank of England target range). Core inflation: 6.4%, 5.8%, 6.2%, 6.8%, 7.1%, 6.9%, 6.9% (crossing over CPI and back again), 6.2%, 6.1% (crossing over CPI), 5.7%, 5.1%, 5.1%, 5.1%, 4.5%. Bank of England target range: shaded area across the chart between 1.0% and 3.0% with 2.0% solid line through the middle. 21 Mar 2024. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA. Design by Sunday. Source: ONS, 'Consumer price inflation, UK: Feb 2024'. (c) ICAEW 2024

The Office for National Statistics reported its latest estimates for inflation on Wednesday 20 March 2024, with both annual consumer price inflation (CPI) and annual consumer price inflation excluding food, alcohol, tobacco and energy (core inflation) in February falling by 0.6 percentage points to 3.4% and 4.5% respectively.

Our chart this week illustrates how CPI fell from 10.5% in the year to December 2022 to 4% in December 2023 and to 3.4% in February 2024, a rapid decline in the headline measure. This contrasts with the annual rate of core inflation, which increased from 6.4% in December 2022 to a peak of 7.1% in May 2023, before declining more gradually to 5.1% in December 2023 and to 4.5% in February 2024.

Annual food price inflation (5% in February 2024), alcohol and tobacco (11.9%), and energy prices (-13.8%) are of course many of the prices that we as consumers notice the most – what we buy in the supermarket, off-licence, at the fuel pump, or pay to heat and power our homes. However, food, alcohol, tobacco and energy prices are often very volatile and so core inflation allows us to understand what is happening to the (generally less volatile) prices of the other 78% of the things we buy as measured by the CPI Index. 

The drop in core inflation to 4.5% is a positive sign for the Monetary Policy Committee, even if it didn’t reduce interest rates at its most recent meeting on Thursday 21 March 2024. The headline measure of CPI is coming down, and is expected to fall further over the next few months as large food price increases a year ago drop out of the annual comparison, a factor that won’t affect core inflation directly.

Policymakers are expected to remain cautious about cutting interest rates for several more months, as they will want to see how inflationary the scheduled increases in April of 9.8% in the minimum wage, 8.5% in the state pension and 6.7% in universal credit and other welfare benefits will be. Salaries are a significant input cost for the majority of businesses and it is likely that many will seek to pass on higher salary costs to their customers, while higher spending by pensioners and those in receipt of benefits could start to push up prices again just at the point that the Bank of England hopes to have brought inflation under control. 

While there is likely to be much celebration and declaration of victory once the headline CPI measure drops into the target range over the next few months, how long it takes to bring down core inflation to within the target range is likely to be a better indicator of whether inflation has actually been tamed.

For more ICAEW analysis on the economy, click here.

This chart was originally published by ICAEW.

ICAEW chart of the week: Wage inflation

My chart for ICAEW this week takes a look at how average earnings have risen over the last decade and how they compare with the headline rate of inflation.

Triple column chart vertically above each other: Wage inflation ICAEW chart of the week Each chart goes from Jan 2015 to Jan 2024 (10 columns) Top chart: Average earnings net of CPI (orange) +1.1%, +2.5%, -0.1%, -0.4%, +2.0%, +1.3%, +3.6%, -0.4%, -3.9%, +1.5% Middle chart: Average earnings (purple) +1.4%, +2.8%, +1.7%, +2.6%, +3.8%, +3.1%, +4.3%, +5.1%, +6.2%, +5.5% Bottom chart: CPI (blue) +0.3%, +0.3%, +1.8%, +3.0%, +1.8%, +1.8%, 0.7%, +5.5%, +10.1%, +4.0% 14 Mar 2024. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA. Design by Sunday. Source: ONS, 'Consumer price inflation', 'Labour Force Survey, average weekly earnings (including bonuses)'. (C) ICAEW 2024

According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), average weekly earnings including bonuses on a seasonally adjusted basis increased by 5.5% between January 2023 and January 2024 to £672 (equivalent to £2,912 per month). This is 1.5 percentage points higher than the rate of consumer price inflation (CPI) over the same 12-month period of 4.0%.

While this might seem positive for the theoretical ‘average’ worker, this follows a 6.2% increase in the preceding year to January 2023, 3.9 percentage points lower than the corresponding 10.1% increase in consumer prices.

Our chart this week takes these numbers back a decade, with CPI of 0.3%, 0.3%, 1.8%, 3.0%, 1.8%, 1.8%, 0.7%, 5.5%, 10.1% and 4.0% respectively in the years from January 2015 through to January 2024. Average earnings increased by 1.4%, 2.8%, 1.7%, 2.6%, 3.8%, 3.1%, 4.3%, 5.1%, 6.2% and 5.5% respectively over the same period, giving rise to net differences of +1.1%, +2.5%, -0.1%, -0.4%, +2.0%, +1.3%, +1.3%, +3.6%, -0.4%, -3.9% and +1.5%.

Overall, wages have increased faster than inflation over the last decade, up 43.2% compared with a 32.8% increase in the CPI Index, equivalent to average rises of 3.7% a year and 2.9% a year respectively – or a net 0.8 percentage point a year improvement in average wages over CPI.

Private sector wages have risen faster at 45.7% over ten years (3.8% a year on average), while public sector wages have gone up by 33.7% (2.9% a year on average), only marginally ahead of CPI (by 0.07% a year). Of course, averages are just that and individual and household experiences will differ significantly.

This comparison would not be approved of by the statistical authorities, who prefer the consumer prices including housing (CPIH) measure of inflation to headline CPI. However, CPIH was up 31.7% over the past decade to January 2024 (or 2.8% a year on average), so while the numbers might have been slightly different in individual years if we had used CPIH in the chart, the increase in average wages over 10 years is only slightly better – by 1.1% in total or 0.1% a year on average.

Assuming inflation falls to below 2% later this year as predicted, the picture for the coming year is likely to show a significant positive variance for earnings, especially given the 9.8% increase in the minimum wage scheduled for April. This should have the effect of pushing up average earnings, unless something very surprising happens to wages further up the income scale.

For more ICAEW analysis on the economy, click here.

This chart was originally published by ICAEW.

ICAEW chart of the week: Inflation

My chart for ICAEW this week illustrates how core inflation has only dropped from 6.3% in December 2022 to 5.1% in December 2023, even as the headline rate has come down from 10.5% to 4.0%.

Two step charts under the title 'Inflation'. Step chart 1: 2022 (12 months to Dec 2022) Core inflation +6.3% (corresponding to 5.0% in height) + Food prices +16.8% (height 1.8%) + Alcohol & tobacco +3.7% (height 0.2%) + Energy prices +52.8% (height 3.5%) = CPI all items +10.5% (height 10.5%) Step chart 2: 2023 (12 months to Dec 2023) Core inflation +5.51% (height 4.0%) + Food prices +8.0% (height 0.9%) + Alcohol & tobacco +12.9% (height 0.5%) + Energy prices -17.3% (height -1.4%) = CPI all items +4.0% (height 4.0%) 18 Jan 2024. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA. Design by Sunday. Source: ONS, 'Consumer price inflation, UK: Dec 2023'. (c) ICAEW 2024

On 17 January 2023, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published its latest consumer price inflation (CPI) statistics for the 12 months to December 2023, reporting that headline inflation has fallen to an annual rate of 4.0% compared with 10.5% a year earlier – a more than halving of the annual rate of price growth.

This contrasts with CPI excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco (typically described as core inflation), which was 6.3% and 5.1% in the 12 months to December 2022 and 2023 respectively.

The left-hand side of my chart this week illustrates how core inflation in the 12 months to December 2022 of 6.3% contributed just under 5.0% to the weighted average total inflation rate of 10.5%, with food prices up 16.8%, alcohol and tobacco up 3.7%, and energy prices up 52.8% contributing a further 1.8%, 0.2% and 3.5% respectively.

The right-hand side shows the 12 months to December 2023, where core inflation of 5.1%, food price inflation of 8.0%, alcohol and tobacco inflation of 12.9%, and a fall in energy prices of 17.3% contributed approximately 4.0%, 0.9%, 0.5% and -1.4% respectively to the weighted average total rate of consumer price inflation of 4.0%

The relative weightings may explain why many people feel that inflation is still running faster than the headline rate. Food prices, up 8.0% in the past 12 months, have increased twice as fast as CPI of 4.0%, while alcohol (up 9.6%) and tobacco (up 16.0%) have gone up by even more. These may have been offset by energy prices coming down by 17.3% over the past 12 months, but this may not be perceived as that beneficial given how energy is still significantly more expensive than it was before the cost-of-living crisis started.

For policymakers, the bigger concern will be the stickiness in core inflation, which remains stubbornly higher than the Bank of England’s target for overall CPI of 2.0%. While the expectation is that both core and headline rates will come down further during the course of 2024, the Bank is likely to remain cautious about declaring victory in the fight against inflation despite worries about the effects of high interest rates on the struggling economy.

This chart was originally published by ICAEW.

ICAEW chart of the week: Consumer Price Inflation

My chart this week looks at how the benchmark percentage used to determine the rise in the state pension and many welfare benefits from next April reached 10.1% in September 2022.

Line chart showing the CPI index over 4 years, together with the annual percentage change to each September. Sep 2018: 106.6 (intermediate quarters 107.1, 107.0, 107.9) Sep 2019: 108.5, +1.7% over prior year (108.5, 108.6, 108.6) Sep 2020: 109.1, +0.5% (109.2, 109.4, 111.3) Sep 2021: 112.4, +3.1% (115.1, 117.1, 121.8) Sep 2022: 123.8, +10.1%

The ICAEW chart of the week is on consumer price inflation, illustrating how the CPI index rose from 106.1 in September 2018 to 108.5 in September 2019, 109.1 in September 2020, 112.4 in September 2021 and 123.8 in September 2022. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), this meant that annual consumer price inflation was 1.7%, 0.5%, 3.1% and 10.1% for each of the four years to September 2022.

The percentage increase in the consumer price inflation index to each September is an important number as it is used to uprate most welfare benefits from the following April. In addition, under the triple-lock formula that has just been recommitted to by the government, it will be used to uprate the state pension in place of the statutory requirement for a rise in line with average earnings, which in September 2022 was 5.5%.

There has been speculation that the Chancellor of the Exchequer might try to restrict the uprating of welfare benefits (other than the state pension) to below inflation in order to meet his fiscal objectives. However, there is significant political pressure not to do so during a cost-of-living crisis that means many households are already struggling to pay their bills, even before the large rise in energy prices this month.

In theory, the sharp upward slope in the index over the last year provides some hope for both consumers and the Bank of England, as price increases from a year earlier fall out of the index, at least from November onwards given the energy price guarantee that means domestic energy prices should be flat for the following six months. With petrol and diesel prices appearing to moderate, and the ‘medicine’ of higher interest rates starting to take effect, the hope is that prices will rise less rapidly than they have this year, and so cause the annual rate of inflation to fall in the first half of next year.

Having said that, if recent events have taught us anything it is that our ability to predict the future is far from perfect.

This chart was originally published by ICAEW.

ICAEW chart of the week: Consumer Prices Index

My chart this week looks at how price rises have accelerated over the last few months, with consumer price inflation reaching 4.2% in October, the highest it has been for a decade.

Line chart showing how the Consumer Prices Index has increased from 106.7 in Oct 2018 to 107/6 in Apr 2019 to 108.3 in Oct 2019 (a +1.5% increase over a year earlier) to 108.5 in Apr 2020 to 109.1 in Oct 2020 (up 0.7% over the year) to 110.1 in Apr 2021 to 113.6 in Oct 2021 (a 4.2% annual increase).

The Office for National Statistics published its latest estimates for inflation on Wednesday 17 November, reporting a 12-month increase in the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) of 4.2% and a 12-month increase in the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ house costs (CPIH) of 3.8%, both of which are the highest they have been since November 2011 when CPI was 4.8% and CPIH was 4.1%.

CPI and CPIH are calculated using a basket of goods and services to assess the level of inflation experienced by consumers, with the current index set to 100 in July 2015.

The ICAEW chart of the week shows how CPI fell before increasing from 106.7 in October 2018 to 107.6 in April 2019 and 108.3 in October 2019, an annual increase of 1.5% that was within the 1% to 3% Bank of England target range. This was followed by smaller increases to 108.3 in April 2020 and 109.1 in October 2020, a 0.7% annual increase in CPI driven in part by the pandemic. The index hovered around that level for several months until starting to increase more rapidly from March onwards as the economy started to re-open, reaching 110.1 in April 2021 and continuing to increase sharply to 113.6 in October 2021, an annual increase of 4.2%.

The Governor of the Bank of England is required to write to the Chancellor of the Bank of England whenever inflation is more than 1% above or below the 2% target and he did so on 23 September when inflation reached 3.2% and he will again now that it has reached 4.2%. Part of the explanation he has given and will give are ‘base effects’, where price discounting during 2020 at the height of the first and second waves of the pandemic suppressed some of the inflation that is being experienced now.

Further letters are likely over the next few months as even if prices don’t rise any further, given how the index bounced around the 109 level between September and March 2021. This means inflation should continue to stay substantially above 3% for the next four months or so unless prices were to fall again, which is unlikely given how global commodities and supply constraints continue to feed into rising domestic prices. A 12-month CPI-inflation rate of 5% appears more than likely at some point in the next few months.

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) isn’t panicking at this stage given that the annualised rate of inflation over the last three years (comparing October 2021 with October 2018) is an almost on-target 2.1% and their expectation that inflation rate will come down once the flat inflationary period of a year ago starts to drop out of the comparison. However, they are sufficiently concerned about the steep slope in the CPI in the last few months to signal that interest rates may need to rise if prices continue to increase at the pace seen in recent months.

The MPC’s original plan was to hang tight through what they hoped would be a short inflationary spurt as the economy emerges from the pandemic. In the event it looks like they won’t be able to hold that line, with higher interest rates a distinct possibility in the coming months.

This chart was originally published by ICAEW.

ICAEW chart of the week: UK inflation

This week’s chart takes a look at UK inflation following news that the annual rate of inflation more than doubled in April to 1.5%, more than twice the 0.7% reported for the previous month.

Chart: CPI increasing from less than 0.5% in Apr 2016 to over 3% in Oct 2017 before falling to close to zero in Oct 2020, zigzagging to 0.7% in Mar 2021 and then jumping to 1.5% in Apr 2021. Compared with five year annualised rate gradually increasing from 1.5% in 2016 to close to just under 2% now.

The headline rate of inflation doubled this week from 0.7% to 1.5%, giving rise to concerns about the economic recovery. Economists aren’t getting worried just yet, but are they right to be so sanguine? 

This scale of this jump partly reflects the timing of the first and current lockdowns, as inflation is typically measured by comparing prices with the same month a year previously, with significant changes both this year as the UK started to emerge from its third lockdown and a year ago as it was entering its first. Some commentators have pointed out that the temporary cut in VAT on restaurant food and leisure activities help prevent the jump from being even higher.

Our chart compares the annual rate of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation with a more stable measure, which is the annualised rate of CPI inflation over a five-year period. This is less susceptible to short-term swings in the economy, but as the chart shows, medium-term inflation has been gradually rising over the past five years even as headline rates on an annual basis fell over the last four years before the pandemic.

This perhaps explains some of the relaxed responses from economists about the sudden burst in inflation in the last month, given the annual rate of increase still remains below the medium-term trend, despite the current extraordinary economic circumstances.

Of course, that is not to say that inflation might not become a problem as the UK emerges further from lockdown. Many businesses have closed over the last year, particularly in the retail sector, while those that have survived will be looking to repair their balance sheets – a recipe for higher prices as constrained supply meets higher post-lockdown demand from consumers. Only time will tell whether this will feed into sustained higher levels of inflation or will jump be a temporary adjustment that falls out of the headline rate again in a year or so’s time.