Tag: #internationaltrade

ICAEW chart of the week: US and China trade

Our chart this week looks at trade between the US and China following the 145% tariffs imposed on China by President Trump in the latest twist in his global trade war.

A three-column step chart showing the trade balance between the US and China. China exports to the US: $439bn goods + $462bn = $462bn total. China trade surplus with the US: $263bn. US exports to China: $144bn goods + $55bn = $199bn total. 11 Apr 2025. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA. Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, 'International Trade in Goods and Services'.

According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, mainland China generated a trade surplus of $263bn in its trade with the US in 2024, being total exports of $462bn from China to the US less imports into China from the US of $199bn.

As our chart of the week highlights, the vast majority of China’s exports to the US in 2024 were goods, with $439bn sold to US businesses and consumers, while services exports amounted to a much smaller $23bn. Meanwhile the US exported $144bn in goods and $55bn in services in the same period.

China’s overall trade surplus of $263bn can be analysed between a surplus on goods trade of $295bn less a deficit on services of $32bn.

These numbers exclude trade between Hong Kong and the US, where Hong Kong has a trade deficit with the US of $22bn, comprising exports from Hong Kong to the US of $22bn ($7bn goods and $15bn services) less imports from the US into Hong Kong of $44bn ($29bn goods and $15bn services).

Goods exports from China to the US of $439bn in 2024 included $206bn in machinery, electrical and electronic products (including $51bn phones, $36bn computers and $18bn batteries), $42bn chemicals and pharmaceuticals, $37bn clothes and accessories, $30bn toys, games and sports equipment, $25bn metals and metal products, $19bn furniture, $19bn plastics and $17bn vehicles, together with $44bn in other goods. 

Goods imported by China from the US of $144bn included $28bn in machinery, electrical and electronic products (including $9bn integrated circuits), $23bn food and drink (much of which was animal foodstuffs), $21bn chemicals and pharmaceuticals, $15bn fuel, $12bn aircraft, and $7bn metal and metal products, together with $35bn in other goods. 

While the imposition of such high tariffs on China is likely to cause US consumers and businesses to switch to other sources where they can, in many cases this will not be possible – especially in the near term. This is likely to be the case for the significant proportion of China’s exports that are intermediate goods used by US manufacturers to make their own products – many US businesses reliant on Chinese inputs could find they are no longer competitive with suppliers from elsewhere in the world that are now subject to ‘just’ 10% tariffs (or 25% in the case of cars, steel and aluminium).

So, while we can’t predict what is going to happen in the global trade war launched by President Trump, the current state of affairs of 10% base import tariffs on almost all countries and 145% tariffs on imports from China seems unlikely to last indefinitely.

This chart was originally published by ICAEW.

ICAEW chart of the week: Trade with the US

Our chart this week looks at trade with the US in light of the 10% tariffs imposed on the UK by President Trump on ‘liberation day’.

A three-column step chart showing the difference between UK exports to and imports from the US. UK exports to the US: £58bn goods + £124bn services = £182bn. UK trade surplus with the US: £71bn. UK imports from the US: £56bn goods + £55bn services = £111bn. 4 Apr 2025. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA. Design by Sunday. Source: DBT, 'United States Trade and Investment Factsheet, 21 Feb 2025'.

According to the UK Department for Business and Trade, the UK generated a trade surplus of £71bn during the four quarters ended 30 September 2024, being the difference between seasonally adjusted numbers for exports of £182bn from the UK to the US less imports from the US into the UK of £111bn. 

As our chart of the week highlights, goods exports to and imports from the US comprised £58bn and £56bn respectively, while services exports to and imports from the US were £124bn and £55bn.

The trade surplus with the US of £71bn for the year to September 2024 can be analysed between a surplus on goods of just under £2bn and a surplus on services of slightly more than £69bn, according to the statistics collected by the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The £2bn surplus on goods in favour of the UK contrasts with the corresponding US statistics, which report a trade surplus in goods in favour of the US of $12bn (£9bn) in 2024, based on exports from the US to the UK of $80bn (£62bn) less imports from the UK into the US of $68bn (£53bn).

According to non-seasonally adjusted data from the ONS, goods exports to the US in the four quarters to September 2024 totalled £60bn (£2bn more than the £58bn shown in the chart), comprising £37bn in manufactured goods (including £8bn cars, £5bn engines and £2bn aircraft), £7bn pharmaceuticals, £5bn other chemicals, £3bn metals, £3bn food, drink and tobacco, £3bn oil, and £2bn other goods and materials.

Meanwhile non-seasonally adjusted data on goods imports from the US in the same period of £57bn (£1bn more than in the chart) comprised £25bn manufactured goods (including £6bn engines, £3bn aircraft and £1bn cars), £15bn oil and gas, £4bn pharmaceuticals, £4bn other chemicals, £2bn metals, £1bn food, drinks and tobacco, and £6bn of other goods and materials.

The US is the UK’s biggest individual trading partner, with exports to the US representing 22% of total UK exports (goods: 16% of total goods exports; services: 27% of total services exports) and imports representing 13% of total imports (goods: 10% of total goods imports; services: 19% of total services imports).

These numbers compare with the UK’s trade with the EU in the year to September 2024, where exports to the EU were £346bn or 41% of total exports (goods: £178bn or 48% of total goods exports; services: £168bn or 36% of total services exports) and imports from the EU were £445bn or 52% of total imports (goods: £312bn or 55% of total goods imports; services: £133bn or 45% of total services imports).

The UK government was no doubt relieved to have ‘only’ been targeted with 10% tariffs by President Trump. It will also be hopeful that the position of both the UK and US believing they have a small surplus in their goods trade with each other will help in the negotiations for a UK-US trade deal that could potentially see those tariffs lifted.

The government will also be hoping that the global trade war on goods doesn’t affect the UK’s services trade too much, given its importance as an export earner.

This chart was originally published by ICAEW.