Tag: #publicsectoremployees

ICAEW chart of the week: Civil service numbers

My chart for ICAEW this week illustrates how the civil service has grown by 92,000 or 23% to 496,000 FTEs over the past five years.

Step chart titled 'Civil service numbers' (First column) September 2018: 179,000 ministerial departments, 22,000 in Scottish and Welsh governments, and 203,000 in agencies and non-ministerial departments = 404,000 total number of civil servants. (Middle column) Change: +38,000 minisministerial departments, +10,000 Scottish and Welsh governments, +44,000 agencies and non-ministerial departments = +92,000 total change. September 2023: 217,000 ministerial departments, 32,000 Scottish and Welsh governments, 247,000 agencies and non-ministerial departments = 496,000 total number of civil servants.

The number of civil servants has increased by 92,000 or 23% from 404,000 full-time equivalents (FTEs) in September 2018 to 496,000 FTEs in September 2023, which may be surprising in the light of government rhetoric about cutting public spending.

As my chart for ICAEW this week illustrates, the size of the UK civil service has grown significantly over the past five years. FTEs in ministerial departments have grown by 38,000 or 21% from 179,000 to 217,000, in the Scottish and Welsh governments by 10,000 or 45% from 22,000 to 32,000, and in agencies and non-ministerial departments by 44,000 or 22% from 203,000 to 247,000.

The civil service is just one part of the public sector workforce, which has increased by 571,000 or 13% from 4,433,000 to 5,004,000 FTEs over the same period. 300,000 of the increase has been in the NHS (up 21% from 1,451,000 to 1,751,000 FTEs in September 2023), which after taking account of the 92,000 increase in the civil service means the rest of the public sector workforce (schools, police, army, local government and others) has grown by a relatively slower number of 179,000 or 7% from 2,578,000 to 2,757,000 over the same period.

The increases in the civil service reverse cuts in the austerity years that saw the civil service fall from 493,000 FTEs in September 2009 to 384,000 in June 2016, just before the Brexit referendum.

The UK’s departure from the EU Single Market and the EU Customs Union on 31 December 2020 has been a major driver in the increase, most prominently in the Home Office, which has grown by 15,000 from 29,000 to 44,000 FTEs. Machinery of government changes make it difficult to track the other impacts, but it is likely that another 20,000 of the increase is likely driven by Brexit, made up of small changes across Whitehall departments and individual agencies, such as the 80% increase in the size of the Rural Payments Agency (from 1,400 to 2,600), 

The individual agency with the largest increase is HM Prisons and Probation Service, up 15,000 from 49,000 to 64,000 as the outsourced probation was re-absorbed back into the civil service.

The pandemic also had a small impact on the civil service (as opposed to the NHS) with the Department of Health and Social Security more than doubling in size from just under 1,500 FTEs in September 2018 to almost 3,200 in September 2023.

Some increases are more difficult to attribute, such as the 30% increase in the size of the National Crime Agency from 4,200 to 5,500 or the 9% increase in the size of HM Revenue and Customs from 57,100 to 62,000. Brexit is likely to be part of the story following the reversion of responsibilities from Brussels to London, but the growth of cybercrime (for example) in the past few years will also have been a factor.

The civil service numbers reported by the Office for National Statistics exclude civil servants working for the Northern Ireland Executive and its agencies, but do include both the Scottish and Welsh governments. Most of the growth in numbers from 22,000 to 32,000 has been in Scotland as more powers have been devolved to its devolved administration, with the 16,800 FTEs in September 2018 growing by 9,700 or 58% to 26,500 in September 2023. The size of the civil service in Wales has gone up by a much more modest 700 or 13% from 5,200 to 5,900 in the same period.

One possible driver for some of the other increases is that cuts in the civil service made during the austerity years were never sustainable in the longer-term, with the demands that drove those numbers never having gone away. Another is that governments tend to want to “get things done” and there is therefore a need to find people to do them. 

Both of these factors may explain why both government departments and agencies have grown in size over the past half a decade.

While the civil service is less than 10% of the public sector workforce, it is often the first place that the government looks when it wants to find cost savings – and the current government is no different in seeking to cut the size of the civil service again. Whether those costs savings are sustainable in the long-term without more fundamental reform is another matter.

This chart was originally published by ICAEW.

ICAEW chart of the week: UK public sector employment

Our chart this week is on public sector employment, the cost of which is one of the largest components of the Spending Review in a few weeks’ time.

Chart showing UK public sector employment between June 2001 and June 2021. See text below for description of trends.

One of the key drivers for any budget or business plan is the number of full-time equivalent employees (FTEs) and it is no different in the public sector, where staff costs in the order of £150bn constitute just under 40% of departmental resource budgets of £385bn in 2021-22 (excluding depreciation and COVID-related spending).

The chart illustrates how public sector employment has grown, fallen and grown again over the last 20 years. It starts with the largest employer in the country – the NHS – where the workforce has increased from 1,025,000 FTEs in June 2001 to 1,626,000 FTEs in 2021. This 59% increase in staffing is substantially greater than the 14% increase in the size of the UK population from 59m to 67m over the same period, reflecting how the combination of more people living longer but less healthy lives and more successful treatments for cancer (for example) have resulted in substantially more for the NHS and its workforce to do.

Education FTEs are up 16% from 997,000 twenty years ago to 1,113,000 this year, is more in line with the growth in the size of the population, although most of the increase happened before the financial crisis, with FTEs working in education still below the peak of 1,210,000 in March 2012.

Public administration is down from 20 years ago, with 966,000 FTEs in June 2021 compared with 998,000 two decades previously. FTEs increased to a peak of 1,081,000 in June 2005 before falling gradually to 1,010,000 in June 2010, followed by more significant falls following the financial crisis. Most of the net fall represents fewer public servants in local government since the financial crisis , with civil servants in central government only slightly below where they were 20 years ago at 465,000 FTEs in June 2021 compared with 492,000 in June 2001. The total would have been much lower but for a post-Brexit surge in the size of the civil service, which has grown by 20% from its nadir of 384,000 FTEs in June 2016.

Police and armed forces FTEs have fallen from 436,000 in June 2001 to 417,000 in June 2021, mainly due to a steady decline in the armed forces from 219,000 to 159,000 FTEs over that period. Police numbers (including civilian support staff) increased from 222,000 FTEs 20 years ago to a peak of 284,000 in September 2009, fell to 235,000 FTEs in December 2016, and then started to increase again over the course of the last two years to reach 258,000.

Other public sector workers, including community health and social workers and employees of public corporations such as the BBC, Channel 4, Crossrail and Ordnance Survey have fallen from 973,000 to 655,000 FTEs, having reached a peak of 1,322,000 in March 2008 following the nationalisation of a number of banks. Most of the fall since then is a consequence of transfers to the public sector, including housing associations, Royal Mail, Direct Line, Lloyds Banking Group and Northern Rock.

Overall, public sector employment grew from 4,429,000 FTEs in June 2001 to a peak of 5,292,000 FTEs in December 2009 before falling to 4,777,000 FTEs in June 2021, comprising net changes of +601,000 in the NHS, +116,000 in Education, -32,000 in public administration, -19,000 in the police and armed forces and -318,000 in other public sector employees.

Of course, staff numbers are only part of the equation as the 4,777,000 FTEs currently employed have to be multiplied by an average salary of around £34,000 a year to reach the more than £160bn estimate for total staff costs across the public sector. This is the average of total pay – the median full-time salary is lower than this at somewhere in the region of £26,000.

Pay is one of the key drivers, with a pay freeze for many public sector workers announced last year helping to constrain the growth in the wage bill. With the cost of living on the march upwards, it seems unlikely that the Chancellor will be able to justify as strict a pay freeze this year, although he will still be looking to constrain wage settlements as much as possible. Wage settlements in the private sector are also likely to be higher this year, another worry for the Treasury given the £230bn or so the public sector spends every year on external procurement.

The recent upward trend in public sector employment is a big challenge for the Spending Review, particularly the continual growth in NHS staff as more people live longer lives, in addition to commitments to recruit more police officers and to improve other public services. Higher wage settlements in both the public and private sectors could significantly affect the number of people the government can afford to employ to meet its policy objectives.

ICAEW chart of the week: public sector employment

25 September 2020: The #icaewchartoftheweek is on headcount in the public sector, which increased by 115,000 to 5,508,000 in the year to June 2020.

Chart showing change in headcount from June 2019 to 2020: NHS +88k, other health & social work -7k, education -9k, police +12k, forces +4k, civil service +11k, public admin +8k, other +8k = +115k.

Employment on a full-time equivalent (FTE) basis also increased over the last year, with an increase of 118,000 from 4,485,000 FTEs in June 2019 to 4,603,000 FTEs in June 2020.

The NHS workforce jumped by 55,000 in the first six months of 2020 and by 88,000 in the year to June as the coronavirus pandemic accelerated recruitment of health workers. The NHS is the one part of the public sector that has seen consistent headcount growth over the last decade, with 1,782,000 employees at June 2020 compared with 1,558,000 a decade ago. This has been partly offset by a fall in other health and social workers of 7,000 to 208,000 in the year to June, which is 191,000 lower than the 399,000 employed in June 2010.

Public employees working in education also fell by 9,000 to 1,487,000 in June 2020, bringing the total fall over the last decade to 198,000, driven by a combination of cuts in education funding and the reclassification of further education colleges to outside the public sector.

Police numbers (including civilian staff) have started to increase again, with a headcount of 261,000 in June 2020, up 12,000 over a year previously. However, this is still significantly below the 292,000 that were employed in June 2010. HM Forces numbers also started to increase again after a long period of decline, with the approximately 4,000 service personally added to reach 156,000 still substantially less than the 197,000 serving in June 2010.

Civil Service numbers increased by 11,000 over the year to 459,000, with Brexit being a major contributor to the increase from the low-point of 416,000 employed in June 2016, by still significantly below the 517,000 civil servants working in June 2010. Other public administration headcount increased by 8,000 to 614,000 in June 2020, down from 682,000 a decade previously.

The number of other public sector workers increased by 8,000 in the year to 541,000. This is substantially below the 1,105,000 employed in other categories in June 2010, principally because ten years ago the public sector included housing associations, Royal Mail, Direct Line, Lloyds Banking Group and Northern Rock all of which have since been reclassified to the private sector. (Royal Bank of Scotland and Bradford & Bingley remain in the public sector).

Adjusted for reclassifications, total public sector headcount is 215,000 lower than it was a decade ago, reflecting an increase of 224,000 in NHS employees and a net decline of 439,000 across the rest of the public sector.

With Brexit preparations accelerating and the NHS under severe pressure as we approach winter, it is likely public sector employment will continue to rise in the near future.

This chart was originally published on the ICAEW website.