3 April 2020: the #icaewchartoftheweek is on the subject of retail sales, with UK supermarkets experiencing a 20.5% growth in sales in the four weeks ending on Saturday 21 March 2020 according to Nielsen.
This is dramatic for the sector, with sales in the last week in that period up 43% over the equivalent week last year.
Although newspaper headlines are full of stories about panic buying, the statistics themselves provide a more nuanced perspective. Shoppers each made an additional three visits to supermarkets over the four-week period at the same time as adding an extra item to each basket (up from 10 to 11 items on average), with the average spend per basket increasing from £15 to £16.
Although some of those extra £1s will have gone on stocking up on toilet rolls and pasta, in practice the majority of this additional spending will have simply replaced food and drink previously bought elsewhere, as pubs, restaurants, works canteens and school lunches have all ceased to operate over the course of the last few weeks.
A boom time for supermarkets, but terrible for most of the rest of the retail sector.
The #ICAEWchartoftheweek this week is on the US federal government budget. This is forecast by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to end the current financial year this month at just under a trillion dollars in deficit, with the budget shortfall in the year ended 30 September 2020 projected to exceed a trillion dollars for the first time.
Revenue in 2020 is expected to amount to $3,620bn. The largest contributions are from federal income taxes of $1,800bn and payroll taxes of $1,281bn, followed by a modest $245bn from corporate taxes and $294bn in other revenues.
This is projected to be $1,008bn less than planned spending by the federal government in 2020 of $4,628bn. Social security is expected to cost $1,097bn, while spending on Medicare, Medicaid and other health programmes are expected to cost $1,163bn net of receipts. Income security (welfare) programmes are expected to cost $302bn, while the balance of mandatory expenditure includes spending on military veterans and federal civilian and military retirement plans.
Discretionary spending of $1,400bn comprises $737bn on defense and $663bn on everything else apart from interest. This includes elementary and secondary education, housing assistance, international affairs, and the administration of justice, as well as outlays for highways and other programmes. Net interest is expected to cost $390bn.
The shortfall in revenues compared with spending will be funded by borrowing, with federal external debt expected to increase from $16.7tn to $17.8tn at the end of September 2020.
Federal revenues and spending are estimated to amount to 16.4% and 21.0% of GDP respectively in 2020, with the deficit equivalent to 4.6% of GDP. The CBO projects that the average federal deficit between 2020 to 2029 will be 4.7% of GDP, significantly higher than the 2.9% average over the last fifty years, resulting in federal debt growing from 79% of GDP in 2019 to 95% of GDP over the coming decade.
Of course, the federal budget does not give the full picture for the public finances in the US, with most state governments choosing (or being legally required) to run budget surpluses.
As with many developed economies, the public finances in the US are under increasing pressure with an increasingly long-lived population driving higher costs for social security, health and social care. With lower levels of economic growth (albeit currently much higher than in the UK or Europe) and a growing level of debt, there are concerns about the resilience of the US public finances if there were to be an economic downturn or another financial crisis in the medium term.
As summer turns into fall, it may be that a turn in economic seasons is on the way too. After all, winter is coming.
The full Congressional Budget Office report is available on cbo.gov.
Our #ICAEWchartoftheweek this time is on the subject of public sector net investment. This is the government’s preferred measure of capital spending, including much needed investment in the UK’s economic and social infrastructure.
Over the years, the process for delivering capital expenditure in the public sector in the UK has had a pretty bad reputation.
The anecdote goes that the first quarter is spent arguing about budgets, in the second everyone goes on holiday, and it is only in the third quarter that programmes finally get up and running, before everything stops for the Christmas break. The final quarter is then a mad rush to spend the remaining budget before the end of the financial year.
Unfortunately, there does appear to be some support for this conjecture when we take a look at the actual numbers.
According to the provisional financial results for the year released last week, around 41% of public sector net investment in 2018-19 was incurred in the last quarter. £8.2bn or 19% was reported in the last month alone!
Brexit has been an added complication in this particular financial year, with the government’s no-deal preparations in the run up to the end of March involving additional capital spending. Despite this, March was the peak month last year, as it has been over the years.
This is a stubbornly consistent feature of the public finances in the UK, even after numerous attempts within government to improve capital budgeting and delivery processes. For example, departments are now able to carry over some of their capital budgets to future years, which in theory should reduce the incentive to spend every last penny of their allocation in-year. In practice, a great deal of activity seems to take place in March, while April and May appear to be much quieter.
Of course, it is possible that our concerns about the quality of government’s investment delivery process are not fully justified. There could after all be some very good reasons as to why the winter months are the best time for carrying out public capital works!
